Will El Nino Rain on California’s Real Estate Parade?

Summer may be waning, but the Pacific Ocean is just starting to heat up. And with that warming water comes El Niño, the dangerous and sometimes disastrous series of weather events that “heats up the atmosphere and changes circulation patterns around the globe, especially the jet stream over the Pacific, which becomes stronger and dumps more frequent and intense storms over the western U.S., especially California,” writes CNN. Sigh.

This year’s El Niño, according to the forecast released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, is “significant and strengthening.” Translation: It’s gonna be hot, it’s gonna be stormy, and it’s gonna be long. While the effects are felt around the world, in the United States, California and the South tend to be hardest hit, and, as The New York Times reported on Friday, “El Niño May Bring Record Heat, and Rain for California.”

Can the California real estate market handle the hit? Eleven of our 20 hottest real estate markets in July were in California (unsurprisingly, San Francisco took the top slot), and prices there remain at all-time highs.

Despite the potential for havoc, few think the weather will severely weaken the market—good news or bad, depending on where you stand.

“Abnormal and severe weather can impact real estate in several ways, but mostly the impact would be on the timing of sales and closing but not overall demand,” said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of realtor.com®. “But severe weather can also produce damage to housing, which has a more substantial impact, disrupting sales and closings in the short term, but leading to construction and renovation investment in the longer term.”

One thing we do know: The weather pattern will bring more hurricanes and fiercer floods, so homeowners would be wise to follow our advice and Niño-proof their homes.

Sadly, you can’t even rejoice about an end to the water crisis. “Even if El Niño could bring enormous amounts of rain to California, it will almost certainly not wipe out the state’s four years of drought,” reported the Times. “Central and Northern California, which supply much of the state’s water, do not typically receive as much precipitation from an El Niño as Southern California.”

Aw, man—it’s not even the right kind of rain?

Californians may be suffering this winter, but on the other side of the country, there’s some good news: There are fewer Atlantic Coast hurricanes during El Niño. Time to book that hurricane season vacation to Mexico.